Legislature(2023 - 2024)SENATE FINANCE 532

03/22/2023 09:00 AM Senate FINANCE

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09:02:02 AM Start
09:04:09 AM Presentation: Spring Revenue Forecast
10:00:44 AM Adjourn
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
Presentation: Spring Revenue Forecast by
Department of Revenue
+ Bills Previously Heard/Scheduled TELECONFERENCED
                 SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE                                                                                       
                      March 22, 2023                                                                                            
                         9:02 a.m.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
9:02:02 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
CALL TO ORDER                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman   called  the  Senate   Finance  Committee                                                                    
meeting to order at 9:02 a.m.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS PRESENT                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Senator Lyman Hoffman, Co-Chair                                                                                                 
Senator Donny Olson, Co-Chair                                                                                                   
Senator Bert Stedman, Co-Chair                                                                                                  
Senator Click Bishop                                                                                                            
Senator Jesse Kiehl                                                                                                             
Senator Kelly Merrick                                                                                                           
Senator David Wilson                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS ABSENT                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
None                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
ALSO PRESENT                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Cathy   Giessel;  Dan  Stickel,   Chief  Economist,                                                                    
Economic  Research   Group,  Tax  Division,   Department  of                                                                    
Revenue; Colleen Glover,  Director, Tax Division, Department                                                                    
of Revenue.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
SUMMARY                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
PRESENTATION: SPRING REVENUE FORECAST                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman relayed  that the  committee would  hear a                                                                    
presentation  on the  Department of  Revenue's (DOR)  spring                                                                    
revenue  forecast. He  referenced a  press release  from the                                                                    
previous  day  that  indicated there  had  been  substantial                                                                    
changes in the  forecast, particularly in the  last week. He                                                                    
mentioned  conversations with  the department  and indicated                                                                    
that  the numbers  being presented  were  as up  to date  as                                                                    
possible. He  thought there may  be a forthcoming  update in                                                                    
two  weeks.  He mentioned  that  DOR  Tax Division  Director                                                                    
Colleen Glover  and Acting Commissioner Adam  Crum were also                                                                    
available for questions, along with other staff.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
^PRESENTATION: SPRING REVENUE FORECAST                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
9:04:09 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
DAN STICKEL,  CHIEF ECONOMIST, ECONOMIC RESEARCH  GROUP, TAX                                                                    
DIVISION,  DEPARTMENT  OF  REVENUE, introduced  himself.  He                                                                    
relayed  that   the  department  had  released   the  spring                                                                    
forecast the previous afternoon.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
He  discussed  a  PowerPoint presentation  entitled  "Spring                                                                    
2023 Forecast Presentation," (copy on file).                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Stickel looked at slide 2, "Agenda":                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
     1. Forecast Background and Key Assumptions                                                                                 
     2. Spring 2023 Revenue Forecast                                                                                            
          • Total State Revenue                                                                                                 
          • Unrestricted Revenue                                                                                                
     3. Petroleum Forecast Assumptions Detail                                                                                   
          • Oil Price                                                                                                           
          • Oil Production                                                                                                      
          • Oil and Gas Lease Expenditures                                                                                      
          • Oil and Gas Transportation Costs                                                                                    
          • Oil and Gas Credits                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Stickel showed slide 3, "Forecast Background and Key                                                                        
Assumptions."                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Stickel referenced slide  4,  Background: Spring Revenue                                                                    
Forecast":                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
     1. Historical, current, and estimated future state                                                                         
     revenue                                                                                                                    
    2. Updates key data from Fall Revenue Sources Book                                                                          
     3. Official revenue forecast used for final budget                                                                         
     process                                                                                                                    
     4. Located at tax.alaska.gov"                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Stickel relayed  that the spring forecast  was an update                                                                    
to the  larger Revenue Sources  Book (RSB) that was  put out                                                                    
by DOR  in the fall.  He noted that the  forecast maintained                                                                    
ten-year forecast  revenue models for all  the states  major                                                                    
revenue sources.  He noted that  there were  forecasts going                                                                    
back several decades on the Tax Division website.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
9:05:59 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.   Stickel   turned   to  slide   5,   "Spring   Forecast                                                                    
Assumptions":                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
     • The economic impacts of financial and geopolitical                                                                       
     events are uncertain; DOR has developed a plausible                                                                        
     scenario to forecast these impacts.                                                                                        
     • Key Assumptions:                                                                                                         
          o   Investments:  Stable   growth  in   investment                                                                    
          markets,  7.00%  for  FY 2023  and  7.05%  for  FY                                                                    
          2024+.                                                                                                                
          o  Federal:  The  forecast  incorporates  stimulus                                                                    
          funding  as of  March  1,  2023, includes  updated                                                                    
          estimates of IIJA funding.                                                                                            
          o  Petroleum:  Alaska  North Slope  oil  price  of                                                                    
          $85.25  per  barrel for  FY  2023  and $73.00  per                                                                    
          barrel for FY 2024.                                                                                                   
          o  Non-Petroleum: Continued  economic growth.  90%                                                                    
          of  capacity assumption  for  2023 cruise  season,                                                                    
         minerals prices based on futures markets.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Stickel qualified  that  the  forecast represented  one                                                                    
scenario  within  a  range   of  uncertainty.  He  mentioned                                                                    
volatility in the bank markets,  bank failures, and volatile                                                                    
oil  prices from  the  previous  week. He  noted  that as  a                                                                    
result of  the volatility, DOR  had pushed out the  date for                                                                    
finalizing the  oil price forecast  as far as  possible. The                                                                    
oil price forecast was based  on the previous weeks  futures                                                                    
market prices,  which allowed for the  full incorporation of                                                                    
the volatility.  He mentioned a slight  increase in expected                                                                    
federal  funding for  various  agency  operations. He  noted                                                                    
that the petroleum  price assumption was based  on eight and                                                                    
a  half  months of  actual  prices  and estimated  that  the                                                                    
Alaska North  Slope (ANS)  prices would  average in  the low                                                                    
70s  for  the remainder of FY  23 to get to  the fiscal year                                                                    
average price.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Stickel  noted that the  forecast assumed  fairly stable                                                                    
economic  activity  and  did  not  include  any  significant                                                                    
recession.  The  tourism  expectation  still  forecast  1.65                                                                    
million cruise  ship passenger capacity for  the summer, and                                                                    
that the ships would sail  90 percent full. He mentioned the                                                                    
mining  industry, which  showed improved  prices in  mineral                                                                    
prices  in the  futures market,  particularly with  coal and                                                                    
gold prices.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  asked about  the  forecast  oil price  of                                                                    
$73/bbl  for  2024,  and  thought  the  forecast  was  using                                                                    
$73/bbl through the end of June.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Stickel  affirmed  that Co-Chair  Stedman  was  roughly                                                                    
correct.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  mentioned that language in  the fast-track                                                                    
supplemental  bill was  pretty tight  in terms  of accessing                                                                    
the Constitutional  Budget Reserve  (CBR) for funds.  If the                                                                    
price went  below the  $73/bbl number,  there might  need to                                                                    
make  an adjustment.  He relayed  that  the committee  would                                                                    
track the price and work with DOR over the following month.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
9:10:35 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Stickel  considered slide 6, "Relative  Contributions to                                                                    
Total  State  Revenue:  FY  2022,"  which  showed  graphical                                                                    
representations of  the state's  revenue sources for  FY 22.                                                                    
He noted that DOR had made  a couple of minor adjustments to                                                                    
the slide  since the previous  time it was  shown, including                                                                    
the  breakout  of  corporate  income  tax  revenue  and  the                                                                    
addition of a  small tree to denote the  timber industry. He                                                                    
pointed  out that  in FY  22 federal  revenue and  petroleum                                                                    
revenue made up  the majority of state  revenue, while there                                                                    
was a year of net losses on the investment side.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Stickel  displayed slide  7, "Relative  Contributions to                                                                    
Total  State  Revenue:  FY  2023,"  which  showed  graphical                                                                    
representations of  the state's  revenue sources for  FY 23.                                                                    
He pointed out the big  three contributions to state revenue                                                                    
as federal revenue, investment  earnings, and petroleum. All                                                                    
other revenue sources  added up to about 7  percent of total                                                                    
revenue.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Stickel   displayed  slide  8,  "Spring   2023  Revenue                                                                    
Forecast."                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Stickel  looked  at   slide  9,  "Unrestricted  Revenue                                                                    
Forecast:  FY 2022  and Changes  to  Two-Year Outlook,"  and                                                                    
explained  that   the  slide  showed  key   changes  to  the                                                                    
unrestricted  revenue  forecast.  Since the  fall  forecast,                                                                    
based  on the  current outlook  of the  futures market,  the                                                                    
estimate of ANS  oil prices had been  decreased by $3.20/bll                                                                    
for FY  23 and  by $8/bbl  for FY 24.  The forecast  for the                                                                    
Permanent  Fund  transfer  to   the  General  Fund  had  not                                                                    
changed. The  total unrestricted revenue  forecast decreased                                                                    
by about  $246 million for  FY 23,  and $679 million  for FY                                                                    
24. He explained  that the lower oil price  forecast was the                                                                    
primary reason for  the change, and there was  also a modest                                                                    
reduction  to the  production forecast  that contributed  to                                                                    
the change.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman noted  that when the committee  had run the                                                                    
numbers,  it  was  not  as   close  as  the  analysis  being                                                                    
presented.  He  asked  if  there  were  other  factors  that                                                                    
impacted the forecast.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Stickel  relayed that the  production forecast  had been                                                                    
reduced moderately  for both  of the  fiscal years,  and the                                                                    
lease  expenditure forecast  had  been increased  moderately                                                                    
(largely  due to  inflation). He  continued  that there  had                                                                    
been some adjustments on the  credit side of things, wherein                                                                    
some  credits  had been  transferred  and  used against  tax                                                                    
liabilities. The  impacts compounded  the oil  price impact.                                                                    
Outside of oil and gas,  there were very minimal changes, so                                                                    
the revenue  forecast was really  a function of the  oil and                                                                    
gas.                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair   Stedman  asked   about   quantifying  the   added                                                                    
components.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Stickel  estimated that the  production impact  had been                                                                    
about $30 million, for both FY 23 and FY 24.                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
9:15:02 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Stickel addressed slide 10,  "Total Revenue Forecast: FY                                                                    
2022  to FY  2024 Totals,"  which  showed a  table of  total                                                                    
state revenue from all sources  for FY 22, and forecasts for                                                                    
FY 23  and FY 24.  The data was  a more detailed  version of                                                                    
the data shown on slide 6  and slide 7. He explained that he                                                                    
broke  revenues  into  four categories  of  restriction.  He                                                                    
explained  that  Unrestricted  General Fund  (UGF)  revenues                                                                    
could  be appropriated  by the  legislature for  any purpose                                                                    
and were typically the focus  of most budget discussions. He                                                                    
continued that  Designated General Fund (DGF)  revenues were                                                                    
technically   available    for   appropriation    but   were                                                                    
customarily  used  for some  specific  purpose.  He gave  an                                                                    
example that  a portion  of alcohol  tax revenues  were used                                                                    
for alcohol and drug abuse treatment and prevention.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Stickel  continued that  other restricted  revenues were                                                                    
more  restricted,  limiting  the  legislature's  ability  to                                                                    
appropriate  the revenues  either  by constitution,  federal                                                                    
law, or  debt covenant. He  used the example that  a portion                                                                    
of state royalties  were dedicated to the  Permanent Fund by                                                                    
the constitution.  He noted that  all federal  revenues were                                                                    
shown as restricted, as there  were provisions placed by the                                                                    
federal government to dictate how the funds were used.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Stickel  cited that in  FY 22, total state  revenue from                                                                    
all sources  was $8.6 billion.  The amount was  brought down                                                                    
by the losses  by investments in 2022. There  was a forecast                                                                    
for a little over $16 million  in total revenue in FY 23 and                                                                    
a little over $15 billion in FY 24.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Stickel advanced  to  slide  11, "Unrestricted  Revenue                                                                    
Forecast: FY 2022 to FY  2024 Totals," which showed a table.                                                                    
He  noted that  he would  focus on  the unrestricted  venue,                                                                    
which  was  where most  of  the  flexibility and  discretion                                                                    
existed in  the budget  process. Investment revenue  was one                                                                    
of  the   state's  two  largest  revenue   sources  and  was                                                                    
estimated  to contribute  $3.4  billion in  FY  23 and  $3.6                                                                    
billion in FY 24. Petroleum  revenue, the other major source                                                                    
of   state   funds,   generated  about   $3.5   billion   of                                                                    
unrestricted  revenue in  FY 22,  was  forecast to  generate                                                                    
$3.1 billion in  FY 23, and $2.2 billion in  FY 24. The non-                                                                    
petroleum revenue  sources were forecast to  contribute $459                                                                    
million in  FY 23 and $465  million in FY 24.  He noted that                                                                    
the following  slides would walk  through the  categories in                                                                    
more detail.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Stickel looked  at slide  12, "Unrestricted  Investment                                                                    
Revenue: FY 2022  to FY 2024 Totals," which  showed a table.                                                                    
He cited  that the Permanent  Fund transfer was  expected to                                                                    
account for  48 percent  to 60 percent  of UGF  revenue over                                                                    
the ten-year  forecast. He cited  transfers of  $3.4 billion                                                                    
in FY 23  and $3.5 in FY  24. The transfer was  based on the                                                                    
average value  of the fund for  the first five years  of the                                                                    
previous  six fiscal  years. In  addition  to the  Permanent                                                                    
Fund  transfer,  there  was  a small  amount  of  other  UGF                                                                    
revenues that  were primarily earnings on  GF cash balances.                                                                    
Due to  market conditions,  there were  slight losses  in FY                                                                    
22, which was unusual. He  commented on the rate volatility,                                                                    
and  the  expectation that  the  numbers  would be  positive                                                                    
again in FY 23 and FY 24.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Stickel  showed   slide  13,  "Unrestricted  Investment                                                                    
Revenue: Percent of Market  Value (POMV) Transfer Forecast,"                                                                    
which showed a  graph providing a ten-year  forecast for the                                                                    
POMV transfer. There was also  a high and low case included.                                                                    
He noted that  the transfer was based upon  the 7.05 percent                                                                    
long term annual average and a 5 percent annual payout.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
9:20:14 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Stickel referenced  slide  14, "Unrestricted  Petroleum                                                                    
Revenue: FY 2022  to FY 2024 Totals," which  showed a table.                                                                    
He  noted  that  there  were four  main  sources:  petroleum                                                                    
property tax,  a state tax  that was expected to  generate a                                                                    
little over $120  million per year, a  corporate income tax,                                                                    
and  a  production tax.  He  cited  that  there was  also  a                                                                    
municipal share of  the property tax, and  any municipal tax                                                                    
was credited  against the state tax.  He discussed corporate                                                                    
income  tax and  cited  that  the oil  and  gas portion  had                                                                    
generated just under $300 million  in FY 22 and was forecast                                                                    
for $270 million in FY 23 and $300 million in FY 24.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Stickel continued that the  state's severance tax on oil                                                                    
and gas,  known as  production tax, was  the largest  tax on                                                                    
oil and  gas. For North  Slope production the  tax consisted                                                                    
of a  net profits  tax with  a gross  minimum tax  floor. At                                                                    
current prices it was expected  that most companies would be                                                                    
paying above the minimum tax  floor throughout the forecast.                                                                    
There  was  about $1.5  billion  in  production tax  revenue                                                                    
forecast for FY 23, and  a little over $700 million forecast                                                                    
for FY  24. The reason for  the decline was primarily  to do                                                                    
with the lower oil price forecast for the next year.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  mentioned an upcoming presentation  on the                                                                    
Willow  project.  He asked  Mr.  Stickel  to highlight  what                                                                    
impacts  the department  expected on  the projection  for FY                                                                    
24.  He   understood  that  there  had   been  conversations                                                                    
regarding working on more detail.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Mr.   Stickel  affirmed   that  the   department  would   be                                                                    
presenting an updated Willow analysis  the following day. He                                                                    
explained  that the  Willow project  and other  new projects                                                                    
were included  in the forecast  on a risked basis.  He noted                                                                    
that the  production as  well as  the associated  costs were                                                                    
included.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  mentioned concerns about  expenditures and                                                                    
potential  collection of  severance tax,  which could  lower                                                                    
the net revenue to the state.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Stickel  relayed that  it was not  possible to  get into                                                                    
the company-specific forecasts  for any particular companies                                                                    
or fields. He noted that  the presentation the following day                                                                    
used only publicly available  information. He explained that                                                                    
during  the  first  five  years  of  construction,  the  net                                                                    
negative impacts to the state  were expected to be less than                                                                    
$400  million.  Due  to risking  methodology,  the  forecast                                                                    
would show the impacts to be even slightly less.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
9:25:14 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman asked if the  committee would be exposed to                                                                    
any downside  surprises or negative  impacts to  the revenue                                                                    
forecast  update  to   FY  24  due  to   projects  that  may                                                                    
accelerate or decelerate.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Stickel relayed that the  way the state's production tax                                                                    
system  was  set  up,  companies   were  allowed  to  deduct                                                                    
spending  against the  calculation of  the net  profits tax.                                                                    
The state also had a  minimum tax floor that protected state                                                                    
revenue to  some extent.  To the extent  that a  company was                                                                    
paying tax above  the tax floor, if a company  chose to make                                                                    
additional investments  that would reduce the  tax liability                                                                    
it was by design of the tax system.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman emphasized  the need to be  prepared in the                                                                    
case  that  expenditures  were  to  become  accelerated.  He                                                                    
thought that  there would be  a tight budget process  for FY                                                                    
24.                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
9:27:17 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Stickel continued  to address  slide  14 and  discussed                                                                    
royalties.  He cited  that  royalties  generated about  $1.3                                                                    
billion in FY 22, and forecast  for about $1.2 billion in FY                                                                    
23, and a little over $1  billion in FY 24. The table showed                                                                    
only  the   unrestricted  portion   of  the   royalties.  He                                                                    
explained  that  there  was  a  portion  that  went  to  the                                                                    
Permanent  Fund with  a  smaller portion  that  went to  the                                                                    
school fund.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Stickel turned to  slide 15, "Unrestricted Non-Petroleum                                                                    
Revenue: FY  2022 to FY  2024 Totals," which showed  a table                                                                    
with  additional   detail  for   unrestricted  non-petroleum                                                                    
revenue.  He noted  that the  largest  of the  non-petroleum                                                                    
revenues was  taxes, with the  most significant  piece being                                                                    
the  corporate income  tax, which  generated  a little  over                                                                    
$100  million per  year.  Other  significant taxes  included                                                                    
mining license  tax, insurance  premium tax,  fisheries tax,                                                                    
and various excise  tax. The numbers on the  slide were only                                                                    
the unrestricted portion  of the taxes. In  total, there was                                                                    
about $330 million from  unrestricted non-petroleum taxes in                                                                    
FY 23 and  about $340 million in FY  24. Other non-petroleum                                                                    
revenue sources  included a variety that  generated a little                                                                    
over  $100   million  per  year   and  included   fines  and                                                                    
forfeitures, dividends  to the  state, rents  and royalties,                                                                    
and charges for services.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  thought the oil  price fluctuation  for FY                                                                    
24 was roughly  $679 million. He commented  on the magnitude                                                                    
of the oil price swing, which  exceeded the total of all the                                                                    
tax revenues on the list.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Senator Bishop  asked about the Mining  License Tax decrease                                                                    
from FY 23 to FY 24. He asked  if the reason was due to less                                                                    
production and lower commodity prices.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Stickel  relayed that  based on  the futures  market, he                                                                    
was looking  for commodity prices  to come down a  little in                                                                    
FY 24.  He made  note of  the impact  of increased  costs of                                                                    
fuel and  labor, and  general inflation.  He noted  that the                                                                    
Mining License Tax was a net profits-based tax.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Bishop noted  that Mr.  Stickel  had not  mentioned                                                                    
production. He asked had stayed flat or if it was down.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Stickel relayed  that the  baseline assumption  was for                                                                    
stable production from the states mines.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr.   Stickel   showed   slide   16,   "Petroleum   Forecast                                                                    
Assumptions Detail."                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
9:31:29 AM                                                                                                                    
AT EASE                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
9:38:30 AM                                                                                                                    
RECONVENED                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Stickel noted that it  was the point in the presentation                                                                    
where   he  would   walk  through   some  of   the  detailed                                                                    
assumptions  around the  petroleum  forecast  in the  Spring                                                                    
2023 Revenue Forecast that was released the previous day.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Stickel considered slide  17, "Petroleum Detail: Changes                                                                    
to  Long-Term Price  Forecast," and  addressed a  graph that                                                                    
showed the spring  oil price outlook for  ANS crude compared                                                                    
with the  fall forecast. To  produce the forecast,  DOR used                                                                    
the recent projections  in the futures market  outlook as of                                                                    
the previous week. The forecast  used projections through FY                                                                    
29 and  applied an inflation  adjustment. There was  a $3.20                                                                    
per barrel  reduction in  expected oil price  for the  FY 23                                                                    
forecast,  an $8.00  per  barrel reduction  for  FY 24,  and                                                                    
reductions in the out years  as well. The futures market had                                                                    
been holding fairly steady from  the fall forecast until the                                                                    
previous week,  when there  was a lot  of volatility  due to                                                                    
financial  markets and  some bank  failures. There  was also                                                                    
concern  in  the oil  market  specifically  in recent  weeks                                                                    
about  building  inventories  for   oil,  which  might  have                                                                    
softened prices.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Stickel   highlighted  slide  18,   "Petroleum  Detail:                                                                    
Nominal Brent  Forecasts Comparison  as of March  17, 2023,"                                                                    
and compared  DORs  fall forecast to  several other sources.                                                                    
He observed  that the forecast  was fairly in line  with the                                                                    
futures market,  but the  forecast was  a little  lower than                                                                    
the  most recent  outlook for  the  U.S. Energy  Information                                                                    
Administration and  the Analyst forecast. He  noted that the                                                                    
difference was  attributed to timing, and  explained that by                                                                    
using  the futures  market,  DOR had  a  very current  price                                                                    
forecast  that fully  incorporated the  volatility from  the                                                                    
previous week.  The other sources  released an  outlook once                                                                    
per  month   and  had  not   yet  incorporated   the  recent                                                                    
volatility.  Generally,   the  other  sources   projected  a                                                                    
slightly higher oil price than DOR.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
9:41:57 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman commented  that the  committee appreciated                                                                    
the  forecast put  forward by  the department.  He mentioned                                                                    
that  one year  previously  there had  been difficulty  with                                                                    
what had been considered  overly optimistic expectations. He                                                                    
noted  that  the  price  forecast   would  be  used  by  the                                                                    
committee.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Stickel commented  that the  spring  forecast from  the                                                                    
previous year  had been produced  when the  conflict between                                                                    
Russia and the Ukraine had  started, which had been a period                                                                    
of  market  uncertainty and  volatility  that  made it  very                                                                    
difficult  to  produce a  forecast.  In  the current  spring                                                                    
there was also a period  of volatility, which was one reason                                                                    
the  department had  wanted to  delay setting  the price  in                                                                    
order to provide the best possible forecast.                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Stickel  looked at  slide  19,  "Petroleum Detail:  UGF                                                                    
Relative  to  Price per  Barrel  (without  POMV): FY  2024,"                                                                    
which showed a  graph that addressed the  eventuality of the                                                                    
forecast being wrong. He cited  the volatility of oil prices                                                                    
and the  likelihood that that  the oil price would  not come                                                                    
in at exactly at $73/bbl, which  was the forecast for FY 24.                                                                    
The slide showed  the sensitivity analysis of  how one could                                                                    
expect UGF  revenue to vary  if prices were higher  or lower                                                                    
than the official  forecast. Below the forecast  price, a $1                                                                    
increase or  decrease in  oil price equated  to about  a $50                                                                    
million change  in unrestricted revenue. Above  the forecast                                                                    
price,  each dollar  of difference  represented about  a $65                                                                    
million to $75 million change in UGF revenue.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Senator Bishop mentioned  the footnote at the  bottom of the                                                                    
slide and  commented on how  the committee focused  on real-                                                                    
time market discipline rather than  getting caught up in the                                                                    
moment.  He  was  appreciative   of  Mr.  Stickel's  current                                                                    
slides, and  thought the information tampered  down peoples                                                                     
expectations.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
9:45:09 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Stickel addressed  slide 20,  "Petroleum Detail:  North                                                                    
Slope Petroleum  Production Forecast,"  which showed  a line                                                                    
graph  depicting a  ten-year history  of  oil production  as                                                                    
well  as a  ten-year forecast.  The production  forecast was                                                                    
prepared in  collaboration with  DNR. He  cited a  decade of                                                                    
fairly stable production around  the 500,000 barrels per day                                                                    
(bpd) line, and  there was expectation of  another decade of                                                                    
fairly  stable  production  at the  same  level.  The  chart                                                                    
showed  a high  and  a  low case  as  well,  which spoke  to                                                                    
uncertainty  related  to  how   newly  drilled  wells  would                                                                    
perform.  There  was  a  range  of  uncertainty  related  to                                                                    
whether reservoirs  and wells came  in higher or  lower than                                                                    
expected.  Generally, the  graph showed  a mature  oil basin                                                                    
with expected  declines that would  be offset  by additional                                                                    
drilling and  optimization work  as well  as new  oil fields                                                                    
coming online.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
9:46:50 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Stickel  advanced  to   slide  21,  "Petroleum  Detail:                                                                    
Changes  to  North  Slope  Petroleum  Production  Forecast,"                                                                    
which showed a line graph of  the following five years and a                                                                    
comparison  of  how the  current  forecast  compared to  the                                                                    
prior fall  forecast. He referenced minor  changes and noted                                                                    
there  was   a  slight  reduction   that  had  to   do  with                                                                    
incorporating some lower-than-expected  production trends in                                                                    
the base production  at the large existing  wells. There had                                                                    
been   some  new   wells   and  a   few   wells  that   were                                                                    
underperforming. There had been  some deferred activity with                                                                    
drilling  in a  couple of  fields. While  there was  a minor                                                                    
reduction, there  was an overall  picture of  minimal change                                                                    
and  stable  to  slightly  increasing  production  over  the                                                                    
following years, which was good  news and reflective of much                                                                    
work done by the companies.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Stickel looked  at slide  22, "Petroleum  Detail: North                                                                    
Slope Allowable Lease Expenditures,"  which featured a chart                                                                    
that  showed  a history  and  forecast  for allowable  lease                                                                    
expenditures for the North Slope,  and a history of data for                                                                    
oil  and  gas  employment.  He noted  a  strong  correlation                                                                    
between  company  investment  and  industry  employment.  He                                                                    
explained  that  the  allowable lease  expenditures  were  a                                                                    
deduction in the  net profits tax portion  of the production                                                                    
tax calculation,  and also an  important metric  of industry                                                                    
activity  in  the  estate.  He  pointed  out  continued  low                                                                    
spending in FY  22 as a result of  companies recovering from                                                                    
the  Covid-19 pandemic  and  the low  prices  seen in  2020.                                                                    
Capital expenditures  were only $1.4  billion in FY  22, and                                                                    
operating expenditures were only  $2.5 billion. Both numbers                                                                    
were expected to increase.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Stickel   mentioned  the   effects  of   inflation  and                                                                    
additional operating  costs to  reach $3 billion  and beyond                                                                    
in FY 26.  He noted a significant uptick in  activity on the                                                                    
North Slope  capital expenditures.  He cited a  big increase                                                                    
in   the   current   and  following   year,   with   capital                                                                    
expenditures stabilizing  around $2.5 billion per  year. For                                                                    
the  new  fields  coming online  that  required  significant                                                                    
capital expenditures,  the expenditures  were included  on a                                                                    
risked basis.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
9:50:12 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Kiehl  asked about  the  rebound  in operating  and                                                                    
capital  expenditures   not  tracked  as  closely   by  jobs                                                                    
numbers.  He  recognized  that  Mr.  Stickel  had  mentioned                                                                    
inflation and  increased costs. He  asked if  the department                                                                    
was  predicting  some  break   in  the  usual  and  historic                                                                    
connection  between  the two,  and  wondered  if there  were                                                                    
shifts in the industry.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Stickel relayed that there  were projections for oil and                                                                    
gas employment  that came from  the Department of  Labor and                                                                    
Workforce  Development  (DLWD),   which  could  address  the                                                                    
matter in more detail. He  continued that DLWD was expecting                                                                    
an  upward trend.  He shared  that  companies were  becoming                                                                    
more efficient,  and pressures from oil  prices were causing                                                                    
companies to consider how to  bring down the cost structure.                                                                    
He thought  it had been  publicized that some  new operators                                                                    
were trying to run as  efficiently as possible and commented                                                                    
that for  a given  level of work  things were  becoming more                                                                    
efficient.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Stickel spoke  to slide  23,  "Petroleum Detail:  North                                                                    
Slope Transportation  Costs," which showed a  bar graph that                                                                    
showed  a similar  history and  forecast for  transportation                                                                    
costs, which reduced  the value of the oil  for all parties.                                                                    
He  commented that  transportation  costs  included all  the                                                                    
costs  of  getting  oil to  market,  with  primary  elements                                                                    
including feeder  pipeline tariff and  marine transportation                                                                    
costs. The average transportation  cost was $9.97/bbl for FY                                                                    
22, and  DOR expected  the cost to  stay just  under $10/bbl                                                                    
until FY  31. He  noted that relatively  flat transportation                                                                    
costs  were  a  factor  in any  increasing  costs  of  doing                                                                    
business being  offset by  stable to  increasing production.                                                                    
For  a pipeline  such  as the  Trans-Alaska Pipeline  System                                                                    
(TAPS), there was  a set operating expense  that was reduced                                                                    
per  barrel by  increased barrels  through the  pipeline. He                                                                    
continued that the chart would  look very different if there                                                                    
was a forecast with decreasing production.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
9:53:35 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
COLLEEN  GLOVER,  DIRECTOR,   TAX  DIVISION,  DEPARTMENT  OF                                                                    
REVENUE,  referenced   slide  24,  "Petroleum   Detail:  Tax                                                                    
Credits for  Purchase Detail," which  showed a table  of oil                                                                    
and gas cashable  tax credits. She offered  the context that                                                                    
the  tax credits  had been  earned in  the past  and at  one                                                                    
point in  time there were statutory  provisions that allowed                                                                    
the  state  to purchase  the  credits  back with  cash.  The                                                                    
provision  had   changed  and  there   was  no   longer  any                                                                    
eligibility  for  any new  credits  to  earn cash  from  the                                                                    
state. She  noted that the  slide was different  than slides                                                                    
in the past and offered more detail.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Ms. Glover  noted that the  tax credit details  were grouped                                                                    
in annual tranches due to  how the law was written regarding                                                                    
how the funds were dispersed.  She highlighted that the 2016                                                                    
credits  were  paid  off  in  July  using  the  $60  million                                                                    
supplemental appropriation  for FY 22  and a portion  of the                                                                    
FY 23 appropriation. The FY  23 appropriation was based on a                                                                    
statutory  formula  based on  oil  prices.  As of  the  fall                                                                    
forecast  the appropriation  was  $281  million, reduced  to                                                                    
$252 million  with the updated  forecast. A portion  of $136                                                                    
million had already been disbursed.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Glover noted that the  credit certificates could be used                                                                    
against taxes, transferred, or adjusted  at audit. There had                                                                    
been some  movement down since  the beginning of  the fiscal                                                                    
year,  which had  reduced the  total  outstanding blance  by                                                                    
about  $22 million.  She relayed  that ideally,  the credits                                                                    
were  paid off  in a  years  time  frame. There  had been  a                                                                    
change in  law and  there was a  provision that  the credits                                                                    
had  to be  paid in  order of  local hire  of employers  and                                                                    
contractors. She made note that  if oil prices stayed at the                                                                    
status quo for  the remainder of the fiscal  year, it should                                                                    
be possible  to pay the  tax credits for 2017.  The forecast                                                                    
indicated  that $56  million would  need to  be appropriated                                                                    
for FY 24 to pay off the current balance.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
9:57:09 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman asked  if the  $55.7 million  signified if                                                                    
prices ranged in the $77/bbl range.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Ms. Glover relayed that the  $55.7 million was the remaining                                                                    
balance.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  asked if  the  $56  million call  on  the                                                                    
treasury would  be unaffected by price  fluctuations between                                                                    
the current day and June.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Ms. Glover answered affirmatively.  She relayed that the $56                                                                    
million would be needed as a  FY 24 appropriation and was an                                                                    
increase from the  fall forecast. She continued  that if oil                                                                    
prices changed, based  on the unique budget  language in the                                                                    
FY 23  budget, the state  could pay  off more than  the $252                                                                    
million depending  upon where  actual production  taxes came                                                                    
in for the fiscal year.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  looked  forward   to  an  update  on  the                                                                    
numbers.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Stickel turned to slide 25, "THANK YOU":                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
     Dan Stickel                                                                                                                
     Chief Economist                                                                                                            
     Department of Revenue                                                                                                      
     daniel.stickel@alaska.gov                                                                                                  
     (907) 465-3279                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
     Colleen Glover                                                                                                             
     Director, Tax Division                                                                                                     
     Department of Revenue                                                                                                      
     colleen.glover@alaska.gov                                                                                                  
     (907) 269-1033                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman thanked  Mr.  Stickel and  Ms. Glover.  He                                                                    
discussed  the  agenda  for  the   following  day  when  the                                                                    
committee would  hear a presentation on  the Willow Project.                                                                    
He considered  that the update  on the Willow  Project would                                                                    
be  informative  for new  legislators,  new  staff, and  the                                                                    
public.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
ADJOURNMENT                                                                                                                   
10:00:44 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
The meeting was adjourned at 10:00 a.m.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                

Document Name Date/Time Subjects
032223 SFIN Spring 2023 Revenue Forecast Presentation.pdf SFIN 3/22/2023 9:00:00 AM